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Making trading decisions and developing a sound and effective trading strategy is an important foundation of trading. Before developing a trading strategy, a trader should have a working knowledge of technical analysis as well as knowledge of some of the more popular technical studies. Please visit these pages for detailed information. Sample Strategy 1 – Simple Moving Average Successful trading is often described as optimizing your risk with respect to your reward, or upside. Any trading strategy should have a disciplined method of limiting risk while making the most out of favorable market moves. We will illustrate one decision making model which uses a Simple Moving Average (“SMA”) technical study, based on a 12-period SMA, where each period is 15 minutes. This is one example of a trading decision making strategy, and we encourage any trader to research other strategies as thoroughly as possible. We will use a simple algorithm: when the price of the currency crosses above the 12-period SMA, it will be taken as a signal to buy at the market. When the currency price crosses below the 12-period SMA, it will be a signal to “Stop and Reverse” (“SAR”). In other words, a long position will be liquidated and a short position will be established, both with market orders. Thus this system will keep the traders “always in” the market – he will always have either a long or short position after the first signal. In the chart below, the white line represents the price of USDJPY, the purple line represents the 12-period SMA of USDJPY, and the red line indicates where USDJPY crosses above the SMA, generating a buy signal at approximately 129.90: This is a simple example of technical analysis applied to trading. Many strategies used by professional traders make use of moving averages along with other indicators or “filters”. Note that the moving average method has an element of risk control built in: a long position will be stopped out fairly quickly in a falling market because the price will drop below the SMA, generating a stop-and-reverse signal. The same holds true for a sell signal in a rising market. Note that the SMA is generated automatically by GCI’s integrated charting application. Sample Strategy 2 – Support and Resistance Levels One use of technical analysis, apart from technical studies, is in deriving “support” and “resistance” levels. The concept here is that the market will tend to trade above its support levels and trade below its resistance levels. If a support or resistance level is broken, the market is then expected to follow through in that direction. These levels are determined by analyzing the chart and assessing where the market has encountered unbroken support or resistance in the past. For example, in chart below EURUSD has established a resistance level at approximately .9015. In other words, EURUSD has risen up to .9015 repeatedly, but has been unable to move beyond that point: The trading strategy would then be to sell EURUSD the next time it gets close to .9015, with a stop placed just above .9015, say at .9025. This would have indeed been a good trade as EURUSD proceeded to fall sharply, without breaking the .9015 resistance. Hence a substantial upside can be achieved while only risking 10 or 15 pips (.0010 or .0015 in EURUSD).
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Now let’s talk about fundamental analysis, just in very general terms, as we already did about technical analysis. We will just point the major qualities of it. Once you’ve said that didn’t attend an Economics course in School. It’s a pity, because if you did, then the nature and subject of fundamental analysis would be easier to understand for you. Fundamental analysis is dedicated to the investigation of economic, political and social factors that have an effect on the currency value of a particular country relative to other currencies and the forecasting of these factors. Because, we trade currency in pairs on Forex, we need not just single look at particular country, but also a relative assessment of both currencies and, hence, the countries in pair. Generally speaking, if the economic perspective of some country is good then its currency should become stronger, other words, its rate should increase. Using fundamental analysis you will know which factors allow to assess this perspective, and to make a judgment about strength or weakness and why. Since we trade currencies, our major task is to find out the perspectives of particular country, relative to other countries, depending on what we are trading. If, for instance, you trade EUR/USD pair, then you should analyze EU and US economic perspectives, closely watch for any news and changes there, track macro data, including historical ones, check the pace at which it is changing, etc. If you come to the conclusion that the US economy is in better condition and has a higher pace of growth and better perspectives than the EU, then, you should buy USD for EUR. Simply speaking, the better an outlook for the economy of particular country the higher currency rate. I give you simple example of how in general fundamental analysis works. Let’s take into consideration current situation. In 2008 there was a total collapse in economy. The Fed decrease interest rates almost to zero, economic growth in terms of GDP has fallen significantly to negative numbers, and we see growth in unemployment and drops in corporate profits. How we can explain that from perspectives of fundamental analysis? Collapse leads to huge reductions in industrial production and service. This in turn, leads to reducing prices on commodities, because companies reduce production and do not produce as much as before the crisis. Hence, they do not need so many raw materials for production. Due to this reducing of production the revenues and profit of companies also decrease significantly and companies have to fire employees to decrease expenditures. That’s why unemployment starts to rise. Due to this reason we see strong down trend on equity markets and commodities. Because so many people has become unemployed, they are not able to pay on their mortgage and other loans and demand as many services as they did before the crisis. That’s why retail sales and personal income/spending are also reduced. And what is about perspectives? Now we see that when Gross domestic product rises about 3.0% on average, unemployment starts to decrease, other macro data shows an improvement in economic conditions. Prices on commodities start to rise, and this is a first sign of inflation growth. To limit inflation the Fed in medium-term future will have to increase interest rates. This in turn will lead to higher rates on the Bond market and higher rates on deposits that are denominated in US Dollars. It means that the US economy becomes more attractive for investors and they will want to invest here, because here they can earn higher yields with low risk. But to buy any assets, denominated in USD, they need dollars, so they will have to buy dollars first. This means, in turn, that US dollar should become stronger and its rate should increase if the pace of economic recovery will hold or even accelerate.